Estimation of the Space Object Remaining Lifetime in Dependence on its Initial Orbital Elements, Ballistic Parameter and Environment Data

The accurate estimation of the space object remaining lifetime is interesting now because of many practical reasons, one of which is the selection of a disposal orbit with the settled lifetime.The results of such a kind of estimation based on using the precise numerical integration and up-to-date dynamical models of atmosphere was obtained for different classes of near Earth orbits.At carrying out researches the influence of initial orbital elements, including a perigee distance, an eccentricity and an inclination as well as an initial epoch of considered orbit; value of ballistic coefficient; atmospheric model and a behavior of environment data were examined.At the calculations of the atmospheric density for long term prediction the environment data model within the fifty years, constructed by IZMIRAN was used.