On Re-Entry Prediction of Near Earth Objects with Genetic Algorithm Using KS Elements

The accurate orbit prediction of the near-Earth objects is an important requirement for the re-entry and the life time estimation. The method of Kustaanheimo and Stiefel (KS) total energy element equations is one of the powerful methods for orbit prediction. Recently, due to the reentries of large number of risk objects, which posses threat to the human life and property, a great concern is developed in the space scientific community. Consequently, the prediction of risk objects re-entry time and location has got much importance for the proper planning of mitigation strategies and hazard assessment. This paper discusses an integrated procedure for orbit life time prediction combining the KS elements and genetic algorithm (GA). The orbit prediction is carried out by numerically integrating the KS element equations. In this methodology, the ballistic coefficient is estimated from a set of observed orbital parameters in terms of the Two Line Elements (TLE) by minimizing the variance of the predicted re-entry time from different TLE using GA. A software, KSGEN, systematically developed in-house using KS elements and genetic algorithm is utilized for predicting the re-entry time of the risk objects. This software has been effectively used for the prediction of the re-entry time in the past seven re-entry exercise campaigns conducted by the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). The predicted re-entry time matched quite well with the actual re-entry time for all the seven IADC re-entry campaigns. A detailed analysis is carried out with two case studies.