Spatial Density Evolution of Space Debris Environment

It is known that the space debris provide great risks to the safety of on-orbit space vehicles, which makes it necessary to establish a model to evaluate their impact risks. In order to provide the scenario of the future space debris environment for space vehicle designers, this paper addresses a simplified mathematical model for the future evolution of space debris environment. While the spatial density is of more concern to engineers, this paper is devoted to study the evolution of the distribution of spatial density of space debris. Given the initial spatial density, this paper develops the algorithm to obtained the spatial density of space debris at any moment of future, by considering the orbital propagation and collisions.