Re-entry predictions from TLE time series analysis, with the STELA s/w

The long term evolution of orbital parameters of a trajectory is efficiently driven following semi-analytical approaches. The STELA s/w is designed to check the compliance of choices of storage orbits with the IADC guidelines. By propagating the mean variational equations jointly to the equations of motion, it is even convenient to adjust the averaged model to TLE times series.

We focus in this paper on the ballistic coefficient and the area-to-mass ratio that have to be evaluated jointly to the initial (mean) state vector of the satellite. For most of space debris, their a priori-value deduced from individual TLEs is frequently far from the one leading to the best compatibility between theory and observations. We show how to calibrate these coefficients as well.

As a result, we give several examples on atmospheric reentry estimations for different kinds of objects, based on their TLE that we carry out @ IMCCE / Paris Observatory.