An accident waiting to happen? Expected evolution of ground hazards due to space debris reentry

Several recent, widely publicised, uncontrolled reentry events of intact space hardware highlight the potential risk to life on ground posed by the large number of derelict rocket bodies and large satellites not designed for demise in the Earth’s atmosphere. In addition to the danger posed by these objects to sustained space activity while still in orbit, a better understanding of the cumulative likelihood of casualties over the coming decades may help inform international policy on debris removal, as well as steer the efforts being taken by public and private spacecraft operators to mitigate their own liabilities and potential damage to their public image.

The objective of this paper is to quantify the casualty risk and other ground hazards posed by existing and foreseen debris, with a view to encouraging governments and space operators to take proactive steps to remove large objects from orbit before the seemingly inevitable tragedy on ground occurs, thereby addressing the debris problem both in space an