The Analysis of Pollution of A Space in the Field of LEO at Various Scenarios of its Further Development

Making of adequate administrative and technological decisions in reply to the threats caused by space debris (SD) is one of the tasks, which must be solved already now. To justify accepted decisions it is necessary to have forecasts of contamination of the near-earth space for various scenarios of its further exploration. This report considers forecasts of near-Earth space (NES) contamination for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of further NES exploration, including consideration of various measures on mitigating the man-made contamination of NES. In the course of studies the authors have used the last version of the Russian space debris model SDPA, whose parameters were updated for the end of 2012.