Update of ESA DRAMA ARES: Comparison of Envisaged Collision Alerts with Operational Statistics and Impact of Catalogue Accuracy

An upgrade of the DRAMA (Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis) tool is currently under development by TUBS (Technische Universit¨at Braunschweig) and DEIMOS Space. The upgraded tool comprises six modules which address different aspects of debris mitigation. This paper deals with the ARES (Assessment of Risk Event Statistics) module, which provides an assessment of the annual collision risk and manoeuvre rate for a given satellite. For the upgrade of the ARES module, typical uncertainties associated with NORAD TLE and JSpOC CSM were determined. This paper briefly describes the ARES tool, describes the method used to determine the uncertainties, and shows examples of the tool applied to some missions.