Equivalent Re-Entry Breakup Altitude and Fragment List

The concept of equivalent re-entry breakup altitude and fragment list tries to build a bridge between the two re-entry analysis approaches (i.e. object-oriented and spacecraft-oriented) by using the strengths of both and overcoming their drawbacks. The results of a full spacecraft-oriented analysis are post-processed to provide a statistical analysis of the breakup process, i.e. average or most-probable equivalent fragmentation altitudes. The surviving fragments of a full spacecraft-oriented analysis, which are arbitrarily shaped and can consist of several subsystem components, are transformed into equivalent simple-shaped fragments. Equivalence between both re-entry analysis approaches is achieved if this concept provides nearly identical on-ground risk results. This paper describes the development of the concept of equivalent re-entry breakup altitude and fragment list, and its application to a test scenario for uncontrolled re-entries.