Estimating the PNF of Internal Satellite Components

As a consequence of the debris environment and its growing severity, the quantification of the risk posed to a satellite and its mission is becoming more desired not only from space agencies but also from satellite manufacturers. This paper looks into the use of ESABASE and how it can be used to assess the probability of no penetration (PNP) of a satellite's internal components, providing a more representative probability of no failure (PNF) of the entire satellite and the actual risk imposed on the mission. This improved modelling and analysis methodology increases the knowledge of which areas are the most vulnerable by considering component failures and not just the number of impacts or perforations of the structure walls. This information can then be used for assessing different mitigation measures, whether it is relocating the component, thickening the component walls or implementing additional shielding.