Space Debris Conjunction Risk Assessment for the ATV-Jules Verne Mission

This paper focuses on the collision risk assessment, between ATV and space debris, managed in ATV-CC at CNES during phasing to docking and de-orbit phases. First, the methods and results of middle and short term mission analyses are detailed. The effects of the two fragmentation events which occurred shortly before and after the launch (the US ASAT on USA 193 and the natural fragmentation of the Russian satellite COSMOS 2421) have been evaluated using models and data from GRAVES and USSTRATCOM catalogues. The results showed a important impact on the foreseen conjunction rate. Second, the operational procedure of the conjunction management is described. The operational organization within ATV-CC teams and with the international partners is also presented. Then, a statement of the operational conjunction management is done, showing a good consistency level with the predictions. Eventually this led to 3 avoidance events (but only one avoidance maneuver).